The fertility rate in the UK – that is the average number of children born to a woman over her life – has fallen to under 1.5. This is well below the level at which the population would remain roughly constant in the absence of substantial net immigration. In the absence of such large net flows of people into the country the population will start to decline and continue to do so unless the fertility rate rises to a little over two. Some people believe that such a state of affairs poses serious economic and social problems. Many believe that the decline in fertility rates to, or in some cases well below, the UK level in many rich countries poses a substantial risk to the European way of life.
Part of the perceived risk is that economic growth will fall and could become negative. There is also believed to be a rising problem of care for the relatively elderly.
In this talk Professor David Miles CBE considers the scale of the risk, the factors behind the decline in fertility and whether policies to substantially boost fertility are either likely to succeed or if they are even ethical. He also considers the case for continued large scale migration to offset the effects of a low fertility rate.
The economic and social case that sustained low fertility rates poses severe problems is very far from obvious and he explored some of its underpinnings. The disadvantages of ever-growing populations are highly relevant to whether one views low fertility rates as a curse or a blessing. He used evidence from the past and speculated on how different patterns of fertility and net migration will affect the country over the next several decades.
Professor David Miles CBE also considered philosophical issues connected with population size and whether current generations have obligations to maintain populations.