- Talk
- Society
- Manchester
- 24 November 2025
The Implications of Low Fertility Rates
Should we worry about demographic collapse?
24 November 2025
7:00 pm - 8:30pm
Friends’ Meeting House
Mount Street, Manchester M2 5NS
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£15.00 General Admission / £6.00 Students / Members book for FREE
Wheelchair accessible
Overview
The fertility rate in the UK – that is the average number of children born to a woman over her life – has fallen to under 1.5. This is well below the level at which the population would remain roughly constant in the absence of substantial net immigration. In the absence of such large net flows of people into the country the population will start to decline and continue to do so unless the fertility rate rises to a little over two. Some people believe that such a state of affairs poses serious economic and social problems. Many believe that the decline in fertility rates to, or in some cases well below, the UK level in many rich countries poses a substantial risk to the European way of life.
Part of the perceived risk is that economic growth will fall and could become negative. There is also believed to be a rising problem of care for the relatively elderly.
In this talk Professor David Miles CBE will consider the scale of the risk, the factors behind the decline in fertility and whether policies to substantially boost fertility are either likely to succeed or if they are even ethical. He will also consider the case for continued large scale migration to offset the effects of a low fertility rate.
The economic and social case that sustained low fertility rates poses severe problems is very far from obvious and he will explore some of its underpinnings. The disadvantages of ever-growing populations are highly relevant to whether one views low fertility rates as a curse or a blessing. He will use evidence from the past and speculate on how different patterns of fertility and net migration will affect the country over the next several decades.
Professor David Miles CBE will also consider philosophical issues connected with population size and whether current generations have obligations to maintain populations.
Who Should Attend?
This event is ideal for anyone interested in the intersection of economics, demography, philosophy, and public policy. Whether you’re an economist, sociologist, ethicist, policymaker, student, or simply someone curious about the implications of declining fertility rates and population trends, this talk offers a thought-provoking exploration of a critical issue. Join us to delve into the challenges, debates, and ethical considerations surrounding population size, migration, and the future of society.
Practical Information
The talk includes a Q&A session.
Booking is essential.
Accessibility Information
The venue is wheelchair accessible with an accessible toilet on the ground floor. Please contact us regarding any specific accessibility requirements you may have by emailing events@manlitphil.ac.uk
Professor David Miles CBE
David Miles is Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College, London. He has had previous academic positions at Birkbeck College, London and at Oxford University. He has undergraduate and masters degrees from Oxford University and a PhD from the University of London.
He is a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee of the Office for Budget Responsibility, where he takes the lead on economic analysis. He is a member of the Commission of the Central Bank of Ireland. He was a member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England between May 2009 and September 2015. As an economist he has focused on the interaction between financial markets and the wider economy. Much of his work focuses on economic policy issues. He has a particular interest in demographic change and its economic and social implications.
He was awarded a CBE in January 2016.